Meta-analysis of last week’s Scottish independence polls

As most readers will know, this Thursday (18th September 2014), residents of Scotland will vote in a referendum to decide whether to become independent of the UK. While the No campaign had previously maintained a reasonably healthy lead against Yes, in recent weeks the race has tightened considerably, on the basis of polls of voting intentions. In particular, two polls have now shown larger proportions saying they will vote Yes compared to the proportions voting No. With a flurry of polls conducted in the last week, each with slightly different results, I decided to perform a simple meta-analysis of the poll results, to estimate the current state of play, based on the available evidence.

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